Overnight News
Brexit
-BBC: EU are contemplating a new emergency summit to get Brexit deal done; EU internal talk is focusing on possible holding pattern statement at this week’s EU leaders summit along the line of “we’ve made great progress in negotiations but still need more time as well as renewed mutterings about a new Brexit summit maybe towards the end of the month bbc.in/33tmezF
-BBC: EU’s Barnier will update ministers on Brexit talks later today; Finnish PM Rinne said he doesn’t think there’s time to find an agreement before the EU council meeting, we need more time bbc.in/2MGdi3c
-Telegraph Sources: a Brexit deal appears to be taking shape following a +ve day of negotiations that could come up with a potential solution to NI border; sources in both Brussels/London said there was cautious optimism that a narrow path to a deal could now be appearing bit.ly/2Bb8AoP
EU mulls new summit to 'get Brexit deal done'
EU leaders want a new deal, but it's hard to see how this can be agreed before this week's summit.GBP on the move again...
• The GBP is the big major FX mover as the pound is turning sharply lower on the back of repeatedly negative European statements that are flagging that there is still a big gulf between the UK and EU officials in Brexit “tunnel” negotiations.
• The Queen Speech begins around 11:30 BST, but much of the content could be superfluous given that a general election still looms putting at risk PM Johnson’s agenda.
• Beyond the speech to focus will linger on this week’s tunnel negotiations and the subsequent “Super Saturday” HoC sitting which could lead to the collapse of the Johnson government or pass-through any deal that may be agreed the day before with the EU.
• Expect the gyrations to continue all week before these events. But regardless, the stark reality is that even if a deal is agreed, it will still be a major achievement if it gets passed by a fractious Parliament that is riven with so many different agendas. Cable is now already down 0.88% OTD at 1.2560 and EURGBP is up 0.75% at 0.8789 and this is on scant news, but expect bigger moves on real news headlines.
Overnight/Weekend News
Brexit
Times: EU negotiators want more concessions from the UK before agreeing a Brexit deal at the EU summit on Thursday ; EU’s Barnier is understood to have told UK Sherpa David Frost the PM has to give further ground on a customs agreement for NI bit.ly/2MG31DY
-BBC: the UK is willing to make concessions on its plans for NI border after Brexit but a big gap remains over customs arrangements; EU’s Barnier told EU ambassadors that UK plans on tracking of goods was unacceptable bbc.in/2MfazhS
-EC(13 Oct): a lot of work remains to be done, talks with UK will continue today
-PM’s Office(13 Oct): PM told cabinet that a pathway to a deal can be seem but there’s still a sig amount of work to get there , we must remain prepared to leave on Oct 31; there’s a way forward for a deal that could secure all our interests
-HofC Leader Rees- Mogg(13 Oct Sky TV): talks are now taking a more serious turn & looking more +’ve than last week; even the most Euro Sceptic can trust the PM; the key test is whether the UK is a vassal state of EU after Brexit cabinet will be briefed this afternoon on Brexit talks; DUP’s position on a deal is of importance to the whole country; asked about poss short Brexit delay, says PM’s clear we leave on Oct 31
-Labour’s Leader Corbyn(13 Oct Sky TV): he’s unlikely to support a deal agreed between the PM/Europe’; sees strong poss of a GE before Xmas; he would take parl action against the PM if he doesn’t request a Brexit extension per Benn Act; Labour won’t go into a coalition with anybody
-Lib Dem Leader Swinson(13 Oct): wouldn’t back a Jeremy Corbyn led govt under any circs bit.ly/2INrcz4
-S Times(13 Oct): PM will speak to EU leaders inc Merkel/Macron/Juncker by end of Monday for agreement on landing zone for NI & customs; Johnson will offer the three leaders the option to either help him deliver a new deal this week, or to agree on a friendly version of no-deal Brexit by Oct 31 bit.ly/32iSNQM
-DUP’s Dodds(Repubblica 12 Oct): NI must stay in full UK CU , the PM’s Brexit proposal cannot work bit.ly/32dgyJY
-Times (12 Oct): The PM will ask MPs to back any deal he secures with the EU on Super Saturday
UK
-BOE’s Ramsden (Telegraph): In case of a temporary Brexit extension ,sees less of a case for a more accommodative monetary position ;Brexit uncertainty has damaged the UK’s speed limit for eco growth so much that it could hinder BOE’s ability to help the economy by cutting rates; cited declining productivity & investment running at slowest pace for 5 years as well as falling biz investment bit.ly/2VKpjbR
-FT: SNP Leader Sturgeon told Labour leader Corbyn or any Westminster leader seeking SNP support, if you don’t accept Scotland’s right to choose our own future at a time of our choosing, don’t even bother picking up the phone bit.ly/2VKoLTl
EZ
-ECB’s Holzmann(ORF 13 Oct): Told the Austrian broadcaster that current mon pol is wrong & that a diff policy is needed for the future; the ECB should think about setting its infla tgt temporarily at 1.5% instead of spending funds trying to get it to 2%; hopes Ms Lagarde will take a new approach to outgoing ECB Pres Draghi
-WH(12 Oct): Pres Trump will host Pres Mattarella at WH on Oct 16
-Spanish Judicial Source(12 Oct): Spanish Supreme Court plans to sentence Catalan separatist leaders for sedition & misuse of public funds over the 2017 independence bid; doesn’t plan to sentence separatist leaders with rebellion, max sentences could be 15 years in jail
EU tells Johnson to give more ground on Brexit
European Union negotiators have demanded more concessions from Boris Johnson as the price of agreeing a Brexit deal at a summit of European leaders on Thursday. After a weekend of intensive...